FILE 057Defense12 min read
The Pentagon Gave Its Future to the Billionaires
Hegseth's Project Meridian puts Musk and Luckey in charge of picking the next war's weapons. Their companies already sell them.
October 5, 2026
Case file · DE-2026 · Source confidence: High
Money Bets on Iran Peace, Bails on Ukraine
Polymarket prices US-Iran ceasefire at 100% while Russia-Ukraine diplomatic odds drop 19.5% in a month. What two de-escalation bets reveal about power.
FILE 056Economics12 min read
AI Capex Is Now a Subsidy Fight
Warren's $96B probe meets Eisman's short thesis. The AI buildout depends on taxpayer backstops — who bears the risk?
October 2, 2026
FILE 055Geopolitics12 min read
The 'Bretton Woods of Super Intelligence' Is a Bluff
The White House AI accord signals industrial policy, not safety. What the framing reveals about US-China power.
September 30, 2026
Areas of Focus
05 DesksDesk 01
Geopolitics
Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
Desk 02
Defense
Military strategy, force posture, and the technology of warfare
Desk 03
Economics
Sanctions, trade wars, resource competition, and economic statecraft
Desk 04
Diplomacy
Treaties, negotiations, institutions, and the art of statecraft
Desk 05
Intelligence
Espionage, covert operations, and the information battlespace
The Docket
Full docket →FILE 054FILE 053FILE 052FILE 051FILE 050FILE 049FILE 048FILE 047
US-Iran Talks This Week: What the Money Already Prices
GeopoliticsSeptember 28, 202612 min read
Anthropic Said No to the Pentagon. It Got Blacklisted.
GeopoliticsSeptember 25, 202613 min read
Europe Drops Russia Sanctions as Its Airspace Gets Probed
GeopoliticsSeptember 23, 202612 min read
Open Weights Are Now Statecraft
GeopoliticsSeptember 21, 202613 min read
The Pentagon's Europe Drawdown Is Already Priced In
GeopoliticsSeptember 18, 202612 min read
Germany Cracks: The AfD and the 500B Doom Loop
GeopoliticsSeptember 14, 202614 min read
NATO's Quiet Turn to Autonomous War
DefenseSeptember 11, 202613 min read
Switzerland Just Fired Microsoft
GeopoliticsSeptember 7, 202612 min read
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