Geopolitics11 min read
The Apache Exchange: US-Iran Goes Direct
An Apache downed, five sites struck, three Gulf bases hit. Polymarket's $282M peace market is pricing out a 2026 deal.
June 10, 2026
Geopolitics Analysis
The Arc of Power
Geopolitics. Power. Consequence.
In-depth analysis of global power dynamics, defense strategy, economic statecraft, and diplomatic maneuvering. Understanding the forces that shape the world order.
Areas of Focus
Rigorous analysis across the domains that define global power.
Geopolitics
Great power competition, alliances, and the shifting global order
Defense
Military strategy, force posture, and the technology of warfare
Economics
Sanctions, trade wars, resource competition, and economic statecraft
Diplomacy
Treaties, negotiations, institutions, and the art of statecraft
Intelligence
Espionage, covert operations, and the information battlespace
Latest Analysis
Recent dispatches on global power and strategy.
Geopolitics11 min read
The Ceasefire That Wasn't
The Iran-Israel ceasefire collapsed. Bloomberg says AI trades are unwinding. The de-escalation thesis we built our data-center repricing on just broke.
June 8, 2026
Geopolitics12 min read
Nationalize AI? Bernie's 50% Stake vs. Trump's Partnership
Sanders wants half the stock. Trump wants a partnership. Anthropic's founders pledge 80%. The fight over who owns the AI windfall.
June 5, 2026
Geopolitics9 min read
Regulatory Capture in Real Time
Trump's AI Cyber EO got a same-day co-sign from Sacks and Altman. That's not consensus — it's coordination.
June 3, 2026
Geopolitics14 min read
The $965B Bet Needs Power to Run
AI's capex supercycle has a chokepoint: local permitting revolts, NDA secrecy, and a grid that can't keep up.
June 1, 2026
Geopolitics13 min read
Russia's Oreshnik on Kyiv: The Strike Nobody Could Stop
Russia hit Kyiv with the Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic. Ukraine knew, couldn't stop it. Four lessons on Putin's summer-offensive calculus.
May 25, 2026
Newsletter
Get the Analysis, Delivered
In-depth geopolitical analysis — power dynamics, defense strategy, and economic statecraft — three times a week. No noise.
Subscribe on SubstackAbout The Arc of Power
The Arc of Power examines the forces that shape the global order. Our analysis cuts through noise to reveal the structural dynamics of power -- who holds it, how they wield it, and what comes next.
We bring clarity to complexity. From great power competition to regional flashpoints, from economic warfare to intelligence operations, every analysis is grounded in evidence and strategic logic.
Learn more about the publication